…or is it?
I want! I want! I want! I want a new iPhone, and I want to take pictures with it, and download music onto it, and watch movies on it, and I want a million dollars to help me buy it and pay the monthly bill: one reason of several that only 146,000 iPhones were actually connected to service with AT&T in the first two days of its launch.
Goldman Sachs projected the sale of 700,000 iPhones within the first three days, so when the numbers were released Tuesday along with a 6% decline in Apple shares, most papers reported a slump. Apple, unsurprisingly, refused to comment on the lackluster showing, announcing only that the company had not changed its goal to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008. This projection may not be too far off base. When it comes to snazzy new technology, it’s not unusual for initial sales to disappoint, only to be followed by a slow-building recovery—the iPod sold little more than half of its expected 8 million in the first year, and analysts at Piper Jaffray predict similar growth for the iPhone through the next two.
Most likely, tremendous pre-release hype around the product falsely boosted investor confidence in initial sales. Lesson learned: though it might go head-to-head for top ranking in public consciousness, a $599 iPhone does not have the price point to satiate popular frenzy in the manner of a book about child wizards. Just as the analysts predict, the iPhone will sell, but only when the price goes down.
Of course, the obvious irony is that despite seemingly low sales, the iPhone is still a tremendously popular product. Tech and mainstream media have been choked with news, hype and publicity about the iPhone over the past six months. People love new technology; they may not be able to afford it, but they like to read about it, discuss it, form and posit opinions about it, and decide why, even if they could afford it, they probably wouldn’t want it anyways (my suspicion, however, is that despite any naysaying on the very real disappointments of slow internet connection and mandatory two-year contracts with one of the world’s worst customer services providers, price is still the number one issue keeping people from buying). It’s not just the combined effort of phone/music/internet that astounds us. An entire religion has been built around the cultural phenomenon of Apple products, complete with a belief in new technology that rivals Cold War-era faith in the future-building possibilities of NASA. The iPhone, like all Apple products, is aspirational.* It exists both as a potential piece of consumer identity, and as part of a cultural brand that stands for simplicity, sleek design, and good taste. It doesn’t matter that we don’t have an iPhone ourselves, we still have a relationship to this product that we know so much about.
Despite the negative publicity of what seems to be a low turnout, Apple will benefit by the incentive to release the inevitable iPhone 2—complete with added features and a price just far enough outside the budget of the adoring masses to keep some of the mystique alive. Still other companies benefit from the ‘halo effect’ of this new technology (when consumers can’t afford the real thing, they’ll go for a less expensive version with similar functions: hence, my grandfather’s ‘Fony’ VCR).
And if you’re not done opining about your non-existant iPhone, and you still don’t have a million dollars, mythologize some more about it at America’s Finest News Source.
*Les Gomes has written about the dichotomy between ‘aspirational’ and ‘functional’ technology for the Wall Street Journal in the article “For Certain Consumers Of High Tech, Function Isn’t Always Enough.”
If two things were at more polar opposites than design and computers, I would like to see them. It speaks volumes that most of the people I know in technology today can’t stand to communicate with people-except through their computer-go figure. Their condescension is worse than that of designers! Congratulations to Apple for bringing elegance to something so void of good design, and for bringing designers into the technology mix.
: ) P.S. Your Les Gomes link doesn’t work. I think it should point here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112224339106494349.html
Sucks that darwin almost got robbed. I felt robbed clicking on the link in his comment.
Your information seems to be askew and your headline intentionally misleading. Apple sold 270,000 iPhones in the first 30hrs of its launch according to Apple’s fiscal third quarter report. That is 150 iPhones sold every minute. Now maybe to you that seems unpopular, but as someone who seems to prefer to skew situations against Apple (“..despite seemingly low sales..”, “..despite the negative publicity..”, “..what seems to be low turnout.” – kind of amazing how a writer can rewrite events with the power of a keyboard, makes me wonder if you visited any Apple store or were cut off from the media the weekend of the iPhone release?), I guess that doesn’t surprise me. Your prophetic skills are quite interesting as well. Not only have you been able to rewrite an event to your satisfaction you can also make the future abide by your whims as well (“..the iPhone will sell, but only when the price goes down.”).
I don’t know how as a designer any factless opinion in this article was worth reading, but “ya got me” – I both read it and responded. Not a good start to a day.
What an excellent point you make. On re-reading my post in blog format, I can see how the tongue-in-cheek title (with tiny, easily missed, italicized subclause beneath the image) could be misconstrued. Probably better would have been: ‘The iPhone is not immensely popular…or is it?’ together in bold one line of type at the top.
In other words: On July 24th most major new sources (including the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal, where I received my information and sales numbers; not, as you say, from data gathered on my hand-held clicker outside my local Apple store) reported that the actual numbers of iPhones sold fell far beneath predicted sales. A quick Google search will confirm all my facts if you’re skeptical. That day, most news sources projected the view that iPhone sales were disappointing based on analyst’s pre-sale predictions (‘Not immensely popular’). Of course, numbers don’t always tell the whole story, both because the initial numbers were falsely inflated, and because this technology has effectively seeped into the cultural consciousness, whether the initial sales are high or not (‘…or is it?’).
(For a better explanation of how technology analyst’s forecasts miss reality, see: http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/analysts-ponder-iphone-sales-forecasts-158/)
I’m glad that my post piqued your interest, and also happy about my newly discovered ability to make the future abide by my whims. That should come in handy next time I’m buying lotto tickets or betting on horses.